Grain Harvest
Overview.
The Challenge.
To reach a conclusion on the project’s broader questions, we needed to research related questions around global food supply chains, including factors influencing grain prices, the impact of grain pricing on other foodstuffs, the effect of price fluctuations on individual counties, and whether these factors influence the overall threat picture.
To answer these questions, we needed to gather information from a variety of open sources, ranging from academic experts to grain dealers working on the ground in Ukraine.
The Solution
Our research focused on five key factors: The Ukraine crisis; China; climate crisis; price fixing; and supply chains. We investigated the interaction between these factors and how this has led to decreased availability, increased prices, and potential geopolitical issues and threats.
We started the project by establishing a baseline, including sourcing historical price index data on grain and cereal crops and mapping these against survey data on the average household budgets and food spending patterns over time. This revealed that while food prices have historically been decreasing, due to more efficient farming practices and supply chains, price increases elsewhere have kept family food budgets proportionally similar. Ultimately, this meant that rising food prices would have a significant impact on household budgets and, in turn, food security.
We then analysed the grain output of Ukraine and the impact of the invasion on prices. Often referred to as the ‘breadbasket of Europe’, production has fallen significantly from the country’s pre-war average, leading to inevitable shortages and price rises. The President of a Ukrainian grain trading company also offered first-hand insight into the impact of the war on grain prices. We then analysed broader impacts on available and rising prices, namely the developing climate crisis. The indication was that, despite some localised increases in production, crop yield is on a downward trend globally.
The Results.
We delivered our findings at the Defence and Security Equipment International 2023 in Washington DC. Our key findings included links between food prices and volatility, such as war, political instability, and climate events. The instability in the supply of grain also correlates with stronger ties between China and Russia, pointing to the need for greater resilience in the supply chain of essential food commodities.
Project highlights.
